4 min readFollowing renewed tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin dipped into the long reload zone, finding initial support just above the daily 50 exponential moving average at around 103,000. This zone has previously served as a key area for higher timeframe trend continuation, and today’s reaction adds further weight to that narrative.
However, the structure remains fragile.
Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin is now at risk of printing a potential lower high, marked with number 3. This would only be confirmed if price fails to reclaim the 106,000 level, marked as number 2, which also aligns with the daily 20 EMA. A move back above this zone would be required to keep the higher timeframe bullish structure intact.
To the downside, the swing low at around 100,000, marked as number 4, becomes the key level to defend. A breakdown below this level would invalidate the current bullish trend on the daily and introduce the potential for a head and shoulders reversal pattern to emerge.
If the bearish scenario plays out, the next major support is found near 95,000, marked with number 1. This would likely become the next key zone for bulls to defend, especially if macro sentiment remains under pressure.
On the 4-hour chart, the 106,000 level, marked as number 2, once again stands out as a critical area for price to reclaim. The recent bounce came off an ascending trendline in perfect confluence with the reload zone between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracements, a structure that still holds bullish potential if defended.
Two paths are currently outlined. The green path represents a bullish reclaim of 106,000 and a continuation toward previous highs. The red path shows a rejection here, followed by a break of the 100,000 low, which would open the door for a move toward 96,000.
Right now, all eyes are on the 106,000 zone. A reclaim keeps the bulls in control, while a failure could trigger broader weakness and invalidate the higher timeframe trend.
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